How will the midterm elections impact U.S. trade policy?

The jury is out on just how significant any changes in Congress will be on U.S. trade policy.

Certain states in the U.S. have been hit harder by Trump’s trade war with China than others, so

you’d think voters there might be motivated to make a change. Here are the states most affected:

Louisiana

-This state had 80% of its exports to China targeted. Result? Shipments fell 90.6 % from a year

earlier.

Texas

-The Lone Star state saw list 1 and 2 duties applied to 46.1% of its exports. Business is down

54.2%.

South Carolina

- Hurricane Hugo cost the state $5.9 billion. How much will a 76.0% drop on 40.5% of its

exports to China wind up costing?

It doesn’t look like there is likely to be any change in Louisiana, where the status quo is

expected to reign. Any upset to the five Republicans and one Democrat currently in office would

be shocking.

In Texas, early mid-term voting by young people is up 500%. Can they turn that red state blue?

We’ll see…

South Carolina’s First District may be up for grabs, with a weak incumbent, and a democratic

challenger with deep pockets.

Many people view the midterm elections as a referendum on President Trump. Beijing is

reportedly interested to see how Republicans aligned to Trump’s policies do in the elections.

While control of Congress may not significantly impact Trump’s U.S. trade policy, the

perception of a weakened Republican party should give trade partners new reason to hope he’ll

be more conciliatory in the future.

Read more:

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/brookings-now/2018/10/10/how-will-trade-affect-voting-in-the-2018-midterm-elections/

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